Jambi – Deretan survei yang dilakukan dalam setahun terakhir semakin mempertegas kemenangan Dr. Maulana dan Diza di Pilwako Jambi 2024. Terbaru, survei dari Public Trust Institute (PUTIN) menjadi mimpi buruk bagi pasangan HAR-Guntur yang tertinggal jauh dengan hanya 27% suara, dibandingkan elektabilitas Maulana-Diza yang mencapai angka fantastis 69,30%. Dengan waktu kampanye yang semakin menipis, hanya tersisa sekitar 40 hari, peluang HAR-Guntur untuk mengejar tampaknya semakin tertutup.
Dr. Pahrudin, peneliti senior dari PUTIN, menegaskan bahwa dominasi elektabilitas Maulana-Diza bukanlah hasil yang mengejutkan. Menurutnya, Maulana-Diza berhasil merancang strategi politik yang terarah dan konsisten, sehingga meninggalkan HAR-Guntur di posisi yang sangat terpojok.
“Pergerakan HAR-Guntur sangat terbatas, dan meski mereka mencoba meraih swing voter, jumlahnya tidak akan cukup signifikan untuk mengejar ketertinggalan yang begitu besar,” ujar Dr. Pahrudin.
Kenaikan elektabilitas Maulana-Diza terutama disokong oleh pemilih muda dan milenial yang sangat terpengaruh oleh strategi media sosial dan kampanye yang persuasif. Kampanye mereka dianggap efektif dan tepat sasaran, dengan tagline "Kota Jambi Bahagia" yang semakin menguatkan posisi mereka di benak warga Jambi.
“Stabilitas elektabilitas Maulana-Diza adalah buah dari strategi komunikasi yang efektif dan hubungan emosional yang erat dengan masyarakat,” ujarnya.
Sementara itu, kampanye HAR-Guntur terkesan stagnan meskipun berbagai upaya terus dilakukan. Sayangnya, menurut Dr. Pahrudin, upaya tersebut tidak berhasil menggoyahkan basis suara Maulana-Diza.
“Upaya HAR-Guntur tampak hanya tambal sulam, berfokus pada swing voter yang jumlahnya terlalu kecil untuk mengubah dinamika,” jelasnya.
Dengan sisa waktu kampanye yang sangat terbatas, Pahrudin menilai hampir mustahil bagi HAR-Guntur untuk mengejar ketertinggalan ini.
“Perubahan signifikan dalam elektabilitas biasanya terjadi di awal kampanye. Saat ini, peluang HAR-Guntur untuk mengejar sangat tipis, bahkan hampir tidak mungkin,” ungkapnya.
Menambah kuat posisi Maulana-Diza, survei dari lembaga lain seperti LSI dan Charta Politika menunjukkan hasil yang serupa, bahkan lebih tinggi. Dukungan untuk Maulana-Diza dalam survei internal Partai Golkar dilaporkan mencapai 76,8%, menjadikan mereka pasangan yang sangat dominan di Pilwako Jambi 2024.
Dengan dominasi yang tak tergoyahkan ini, Maulana-Diza tampaknya sudah mengamankan kemenangan, sementara HAR-Guntur semakin terperosok dalam bayang-bayang kekalahan yang mendekat. Pilwako Jambi 2024, dengan segala dinamikanya, semakin terlihat akan menjadi milik Maulana-Diza. (***)
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